For the moment, the Turkish government finds itself torn between ideals and popular opinion. While Turkey has tried to move forward with its long-coveted plans for accession to the European Union (EU), the fall parliamentary elections are quickly approaching, and objections to joining the EU have intensified among Turkish voters. Add this to the mounting concerns of current EU member states about expansion, and it becomes clear that the Turkish government faces a difficult decision. Is it in Turkey’s best interest to continue to push for EU membership when support and the prospects for success appear to shrink each day?

The Turkish government certainly seems to think so. At a press conference announcing new reforms in March, Turkey’s minister of economy and chief negotiator with the EU, Ali Babacan, said that the country would still try to fulfill all of the 35 chapters set by the EU as a requirement for membership. Yet, he added that these reforms “will be on the basis of our own priorities and our own deadlines,” signaling a resistance to the EU’s typical control over the agenda and timetable.

Of course, part of this attitude likely stems from the fact that Turkey has struggled to reach all EU deadlines. Stefano Dotto, a member of the European Commission who has been closely following the issue, told the Globalist, “The EU has no plan B; accession is the only perspective that we see for Turkey.” But in December 2006, the EU decided to suspend talks with Turkey in eight negotiating areas, after Turkey repeatedly failured to acknowledge Cyprus. According to Babacan, “This decision was faced with a strong feeling of frustration and huge disappointment of Turkish citizens—the feeling of being unwanted.” Support among the Turkish for EU membership decreased from 66% in 2005 to 44% in early 2007. For many Turks, feelings of being unwanted combined with concerns for independence now outweigh the benefits their government hopes to gain from EU membership, such as substantial economic support and assistance in the settling of cross-border conflicts.

At the same time, the European population has voiced its own set of concerns. Despite potentially vast geopolitical advantages, some fear that Turkey’s population could cause an unwanted shift of power in the EU. Moreover, the country’s low GDP and its geographic location outside the traditionally-defined borders of Europe generate other concerns. Combined with cultural and religious differences, these problems lead to only 39% of the EU member states’ populations supporting Turkish membership. But in the EU expansion process, Dotto believes these dwindling numbers can be easily explained. This level of support “is not uncommon and is due to the fact that the accession process is long, difficult to understand for citizens, and implies reforms,” Dotto told the Globalist. “These, at one point or another, hurt some social groups or interests.” Thus, the Turkish government finds that it must address the concerns of the European population as well as the worries of its own. But its very concern over public opinion has crippled Turkey’s ability to assuage European worries. Ozan Emre Sonmez, editorin- chief of The Istanbul Globalist, told The Yale Globalist that in consideration of the elections, “The most important reforms on social security and privatizations have been either postponed or modified in order to avoid any negative impact on public opinion.” Because of the low Turkish opinion of the EU, the government does not want to pass any regulation showing favor to the EU during an election year.

As we await the election of the new Turkish government in the fall, it is clear that Turkey has struggled to meet EU requirements while showing its people that their well-being is Turkey’s foremost concern. However, if both the European population and the Turkish citizenry oppose accession to the EU, it might not be in the people’s best interest to continue the accession process. The Turkish government should purposefully pursue its own priorities and deadlines to aim for a future that—even without EU accession—is equally constructive and beneficial to the nation and its people.

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